Possible scenario
Trump Counteroffensive
15%
−0.2%
The administration rejects the election as a constraint on foreign policy and leans on executive authority before Democrats formally take control in January. This path keeps Iran, oil prices, and institutional conflict at the center of the near-term market reaction.
What it moves
- Energy+0.6%
- Consumer Services+0.4%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- 10-year Treasury yield
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