Divided-Government Gridlock

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Democratic Congress collides with the Trump White House on Iran funding, immigration enforcement, taxes, and spending levels. Investors price less legislative risk in some areas but more shutdown and fiscal-process volatility.

What it moves

Technology−0.4%
Industrials+0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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