Republicans Still Hold

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans offset the Texas disappointment with wins in other states and retain a very narrow House majority. The result preserves a path for Trump-aligned tax, energy, and regulatory legislation, but the margin remains difficult to manage.

What it moves

Energy+0.4%
Finance+0.3%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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