Democrats Take House

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The failure to gain the five targeted Texas seats becomes decisive in a narrow Democratic House win. President Trump and House Republicans blame weak candidates, suburban erosion around Dallas and Houston, and overconfidence in the new map.

What it moves

Finance−0.4%
Energy−0.3%
10-year Treasury yield▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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