Possible scenario
Targeted Legal Fight
−0.3%
One or both major parties challenge the scope of the poll extensions, the handling of provisional ballots, or whether voters in affected precincts received equal access. The dispute is likely to be narrow and county-specific, but it could delay certification in close races.
What it moves
- Finance−0.3%
- Technology−0.2%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.