• 

  45%−0.5%

  BAAJA Costs Implemented

  The most likely outcome is that the BAAJA framework survives initial political scrutiny and becomes the default template for assigning transmission upgrade costs to very large data-center loads. Utilities and state commissions use the law to protect residential and small-business customers while hyperscalers absorb higher interconnection and grid-capacity charges.

  Utilities +1.5% · Technology −1.2% · Telecommunications −0.5%

• 

  30%−0.1%

  Phased Compromise Emerges

  Congressional and regulatory pressure from technology companies produces a compromise that phases in the $50 billion cost shift rather than imposing it immediately. The compromise preserves the customer-protection goal but reduces near-term disruption to cloud capex plans and data-center leasing.

  Utilities +0.8% · Technology −0.4% · Industrials +0.4%

• 

  15%+0.3%

  Challenges Delay Enforcement

  Large cloud providers, colocation firms, and state economic-development groups challenge the law and implementing tariffs, arguing that the rules discriminate against one class of customers and conflict with federal transmission policy. Delays would support data-center valuations but create uncertainty for utility capital plans.

  Utilities −0.6% · Technology +0.6% · Telecommunications +0.4%

• 

  10%−0.3%

  Policy Scope Expands

  Lawmakers and regulators use the data-center precedent to broaden large-load cost allocation to other power-intensive industries. This would be a more aggressive sector-policy outcome, raising costs for flexible-load projects while increasing confidence that utilities can recover grid-expansion spending.

  Utilities +1.6% · Technology −0.7% · Energy +0.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.