Possible scenario
Travel Incident
15% Chance
A more serious but less likely path is that Russia's demand creates a real travel incident involving an ICC official in a non-Western jurisdiction. This would raise questions about the safety of international legal personnel and trigger diplomatic pressure on the detaining state.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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