Possible scenario
Lawfare Escalates
25% Chance
Russia broadens its retaliation by adding charges, asset measures or travel restrictions against ICC prosecutors, judges and supporting investigators. This remains below a direct military or sanctions escalation, but it increases personal-security and diplomatic friction around the court.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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