Possible scenario
Allies Reject Demand
45% Chance
The most likely path is that ICC member states treat Russia's extradition demand as political retaliation for the Putin warrant and refuse cooperation. The Hague, Brussels, London, Ottawa and Washington increase security coordination for named ICC staff, but the dispute remains largely legal and diplomatic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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