Blockade Prolongs Disruption

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Iran maintains the blockade and QatarEnergy’s import program only covers part of the export shortfall. Buyers in Japan, South Korea and Europe push for replacement cargoes, keeping energy risk premiums elevated.

What it moves

Energy+2.6%
Utilities−1.8%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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