Split Final Outcome

29%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The late spending push saves one of the two priority races but cannot overcome the political environment in the other. This is plausible because South Carolina and Kansas are both competitive for different reasons, with Graham tied and Hamilton already leading the Kansas polling average.

What it moves

Finance−0.3%
Energy−0.3%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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