Democrats Beat Spending

21%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The SLF’s spending surge fails to reverse Democratic momentum in both red-state contests. This would be a meaningful political upset because it would imply that Republican-held territory is weaker than late-cycle polling and party spending assumed.

What it moves

Energy−0.8%
Finance−0.6%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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