Possible scenario
Intervention Shock
10%
−0.9%
A low-probability but high-impact path sees the presidential palace advance a direct intervention despite the Finance Ministry’s denial. This would represent a material challenge to central-bank credibility and would likely trigger a sharper selloff in Brazil-sensitive assets.
What it moves
- Finance−1.6%
- Non-Energy Materials−1.0%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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