Possible scenario
Fiscal Route Chosen
25%
+0.2%
The government shifts the debate from monetary interference to fiscal consolidation, arguing that spending discipline is the path to lower rates. This outcome is plausible because Brazil’s prior currency stress and high-rate debate both increase the incentive for a credibility package.
What it moves
- Energy+0.4%
- Finance+0.3%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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