Possible scenario
Denial Calms Markets
45%
+0.2%
Fernando Haddad’s denial is broadly accepted as the Finance Ministry’s operative position, reducing fears of direct political interference in Banco Central do Brasil policy. Investors still expect Lula to criticize high rates, but not to pursue a formal legal cap on the Selic.
What it moves
- Finance+0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials+0.3%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.