Possible scenario
Republican Rebound
20% Chance
The Cygnal poll proves to be a high-water mark for Democrats rather than a lasting shift. Republican consolidation, stronger turnout among non-college voters and more favorable late economic messaging allow the GOP to close the national gap.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Finance +0.6%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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