Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic Edge
30% Chance
The Democratic advantage remains real but compresses as undecided Republican-leaning voters come home and GOP messaging on immigration and inflation improves. Democrats still hold the more favorable position, but the outcome shifts from wave risk to a close fight for House control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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