Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Solidifies
40% Chance
The Cygnal result reinforces a string of polls showing Democrats with a large national advantage and GOP spending failing to move the electorate. Republicans treat the generic ballot as a genuine warning sign, while Democrats expand the map into seats Donald Trump carried comfortably.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology +0.4%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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