Possible scenario
Coalition Contains Damage
30%
0.0%
Netanyahu’s coalition may hold together by framing the allegations as another institutional challenge from prosecutors, the Shin Bet, or the media. Ultra-Orthodox and far-right partners have limited incentive to force an early election unless direct evidence against Netanyahu becomes stronger.
What it moves
- Market volatility
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.