The polling shift follows the erasure of a 12% lead Lula held in December and declining support in the Brazilian northeast. Prediction markets have moved decisively toward the challenger, with Kalshi recording an all-time high 61% win probability for Bolsonaro and Polymarket indicating a lead. These dynamics persist despite recent reports of Bolsonaro's ties to a jailed banker involved in a fraud scheme.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Flávio Bolsonaro Hits 61% Win Probability on Kalshi for Brazil Election
World20 days ago
An Atlas Intel poll puts right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a virtual runoff deadlock at 47.7% and 47.6% respectively. Brazil votes this Sunday in a contest that may require an Oct. 25 runoff, as the current front-runner is unlikely to secure more than 50% of the first round vote. Observers describe the race as the closest election the country has seen in years.
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