Possible scenario
PT Retains Presidency
30% Chance
Kalshi's Bolsonaro-family pricing proves too optimistic as Lula or a PT-backed successor regains momentum among lower-income voters and moderates wary of institutional confrontation. The result is a status-quo outcome, but investors mark down assets exposed to state intervention and fiscal expansion.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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