Possible scenario
Flávio Wins Presidency
45% Chance
Kalshi's 61% price proves directionally right as Flávio Bolsonaro consolidates the anti-PT vote and benefits from Jair Bolsonaro's continued influence despite his 2030 ban. The Supreme Court conviction of Jair Bolsonaro keeps institutional risk elevated, but voters treat Flávio as the viable family standard-bearer.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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