Possible scenario
Runoff Dead Heat
15% Chance
The election does not deliver the clean Bolsonaro victory implied by Kalshi's headline probability. A razor-thin runoff forces the Superior Electoral Court, the Supreme Court, and party lawyers into the center of the transition process.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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