P5 Rift Widens

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The secretary-general contest becomes a proxy fight over Ukraine, Gaza, sanctions enforcement, and Security Council influence. This is less likely than a compromise but would reinforce perceptions of weakening multilateral coordination.

What it moves

Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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