DeFi Contagion

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Aave’s freeze prevents immediate losses but creates stress in collateral loops, wrapped-token markets, and leveraged DeFi positions. The main risk is a cascade of liquidations or oracle-price disputes rather than direct exposure to the Binance hot-wallet breach.

What it moves

Finance−0.6%
Technology−0.5%
Bitcoin▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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