Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Riyadh responds with a broader air campaign against Houthi missile launch sites, command centers, and drone facilities. The Houthis answer with more attempted strikes on airports and possibly Riyadh, increasing the near-term risk premium without yet creating a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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