Possible scenario
Mediated Pause Emerges
15% Chance
Omani and UN channels move quickly to reduce the risk to civilian aviation, producing at least a short pause in attacks on airports. This scenario is less likely given the recent escalation, but both sides may prefer avoiding a wider conflict that threatens Saudi cities and Yemen cease-fire diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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