Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruptions
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of intermittent Houthi missile and drone attacks against southern Saudi airports, with Riyadh relying on air defenses and limited retaliatory strikes. Flight disruptions remain localized around Abha, Jizan, and Najran rather than becoming a nationwide aviation shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- RTX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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