Democratic Senate Majority

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Democratic victories in Texas and South Carolina become the decisive seats in a narrow Senate flip. James Talarico’s Texas win over the Trump-backed GOP nominee and Andrews’s defeat of incumbent Darline Graham would give Democrats subpoena power, committee control, and a stronger hand on judges, health care, energy oversight, and tax negotiations.

What it moves

Energy−1.9%
Finance−1.0%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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