Possible scenario
Protests Spread Nationally
30% Chance
The shootings turn a provincial confrontation into a national mobilization against the federal takeover. PTI cadres, lawyers, student groups, and sympathetic provincial networks sustain protests despite arrests, increasing the risk of prolonged paralysis in Islamabad and Punjab.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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