Possible scenario
Crackdown Contains Protests
35% Chance
Federal authorities and the army maintain emergency rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, detain more PTI organizers, and prevent large convoys from reaching Islamabad. The most likely near-term outcome is coercive containment rather than political compromise, because the center has already dissolved the provincial government and arrested the chief minister.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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