Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Federal authorities decide the cost of direct rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is rising and open a controlled political off-ramp. A court hearing, election timetable, or conditional release of provincial officials allows both the government and PTI to claim partial victory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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