GOP Holds Narrowly

32%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The late $34.87 million intervention lands in enough competitive districts to preserve a very small Republican majority. Mike Johnson, or another Republican acceptable to the conference, keeps the gavel after the NRCC outperforms public polling in key districts.

What it moves

Energy+0.8%
Finance+0.7%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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