Democrats Take House

48%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

No Going Back PAC’s $34.87 million late defense slows Democratic gains but does not overcome the national environment reflected in Cook Political Report shifts and Democrats’ polling lead. Hakeem Jeffries becomes the presumptive Speaker as Republicans lose enough Biden-won and suburban districts to surrender the majority.

What it moves

Finance−0.4%
Energy−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?