Possible scenario
Strict US Enforcement
38% Chance
Washington treats the Turkey and Pakistan land routes as a sanctions-enforcement test after prior maritime and industrial restrictions. The most likely path is additional designations against logistics brokers, customs intermediaries, exchange houses, and banks accused of facilitating Iranian trade.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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