Possible scenario
Iranian Retaliation
22% Chance
Iran may respond to the closing of land channels with calibrated pressure rather than immediate negotiations. The most market-sensitive risk is not the land-trade restriction itself, but a linked move around the Gulf, proxy networks, or regional transport infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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