Possible scenario
Regional Workarounds
27% Chance
Iran responds by moving trade away from the most visible Turkey and Pakistan crossings and toward less direct channels. This preserves some inflows of fuel, food, machinery, and hard currency, but with higher transaction costs and greater compliance risk for regional counterparties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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