Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
25% Chance
Turkey's refusal to send offensive troops opens space for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, and the United States to stabilize the Yemen track. The defense pact remains active, but its deterrent value is paired with back-channel diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Energy -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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