Possible scenario
Ambiguity Persists
18% Chance
Ankara rules out offensive troops but leaves room for defensive deployments, training missions, and expanded military coordination. Iran and the Houthis continue warning Turkey, keeping the pact politically sensitive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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