Possible scenario
Defensive Pact Contained
45% Chance
Ankara maintains that the Saudi pact is defensive and avoids offensive ground or air operations in Yemen. Saudi Arabia still receives Turkish support, but the format is limited to advisers, air-defense coordination, intelligence, and logistics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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