Policy Bargaining

18%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Democrats use control of Congress to force selective negotiations rather than pursue a sweeping partisan program. The most realistic near-term deals involve health subsidies, child tax credits, disaster funding, and targeted tax extenders.

What it moves

Finance−0.5%
Healthcare+0.4%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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