Possible scenario
Turek Rebounds Late
34% Chance
The Hinson lead proves temporary, and Turek regains momentum by tying the farm crisis to Republican incumbency and defending Millennial Savings as a middle-class wealth plan. Democratic outside groups increase spending as Iowa again looks like one of their best pickup opportunities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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