Possible scenario
Race Remains Deadlocked
20% Chance
The reversal reflects normal polling noise in a highly polarized state rather than a durable move toward either candidate. Election night produces a razor-thin margin, with absentee ballots, provisional ballots, and county canvasses determining the winner.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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