Possible scenario
Hinson Narrowly Holds
38% Chance
Ashley Hinson converts the 47%-45% polling reversal into a small but durable advantage, helped by Republican consolidation and attacks on Turek's Millennial Savings proposal. Iowa remains competitive, but national Republicans increasingly treat the open Ernst seat as defendable.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.