Intel Shares Plunge 29% as AI Spending Concerns Trigger Tech Selloff

The Nasdaq index sank 2.86% on Thursday as investors sold off artificial intelligence stocks amid concerns over rising infrastructure costs, dragging the S&P 500 down 1.82% and the Dow 1.09%. Intel shares fell about 29%, the company’s steepest single-day loss since 1974, after the chipmaker projected fourth-quarter revenue between $15B and $16B, trailing the $17.1B expected by analysts. Other semiconductor names also declined, including AMD, which lost nearly 11%, and Nvidia, which fell 4%.

The losses contributed to a 5.3% decline for the Nasdaq in October, its worst monthly performance since March 2025. Amazon shares dropped more than 1% following a third-quarter miss and the disclosure of $42.4B in negative free cash flow and a $220B capex plan for 2026. Meanwhile, money rotated into defensive assets, pushing Exxon and Chevron to all-time highs, while Bitcoin fell below $77,000 after Binance reported a $6.3B hack.

If this story plays out

−0.4%Impact on the S&P 500 across 4 scenarios (−1.9% to +1.5%)

Scenarios

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

If this story plays out

Scenarios

Story, if it plays out

4 ways this could read

Possible futures, not reported news · chances and moves from Tilt’s model

38%−1.6%
AI Selloff Persists
Investors continue to reassess the payoff period for AI capital spending after Intel’s 29% plunge. The selloff remains concentrated in semiconductors and AI-exposed hardware, with limited spillover into the broader economy.
Technology −3.1% · Telecommunications −0.4%
27%−0.2%
Intel Crisis Deepens
Investors conclude that Intel’s plunge is mainly an Intel-specific credibility and execution problem rather than a full industry collapse. The company faces renewed pressure to cut costs, narrow its foundry ambitions and preserve liquidity after earlier job cuts, dividend suspension and leadership change.
Technology −0.6%
22%+1.1%
Oversold Rebound Emerges
After the initial shock, investors treat the decline as overdone relative to near-term fundamentals. Bargain hunters return to AI hardware and semiconductor names, especially if company guidance and cloud spending commentary do not deteriorate further.
Technology +1.9%
13%+0.5%
Strategic Lifeline Talk
Speculation grows that Intel may receive additional strategic support because of its role in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. This could involve accelerated CHIPS Act disbursements, a foundry partnership, asset sales or talks with major customers, though execution risk remains high.
Technology +1.1%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.

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