• 

  42%−1.5%

  Orderly AI Repricing

  Investors continue marking down the largest AI spenders, but the selloff remains concentrated in technology and AI-linked infrastructure rather than becoming a systemic market event. The most likely path is a valuation reset that pressures high-capex firms while leaving the broader economy only modestly affected.

  Technology −2.6% · Telecommunications −0.4% · Industrials −0.2%

• 

  26%+1.3%

  Dip-Buying Stabilization

  The initial slump attracts buyers who see AI infrastructure spending as a durable growth engine rather than a cash-flow problem. Reassuring comments from chipmakers or cloud executives could quickly reverse part of the sector move.

  Technology +2.4% · Telecommunications +0.4% · Industrials +0.2%

• 

  22%−1.9%

  Capex Funding Stress

  Concern shifts from equity valuation to financing capacity, especially for companies with rising data-center obligations and lower near-term free cash flow. This remains a sector-led stress event, but credit and funding indicators react modestly as investors scrutinize leverage and buyback flexibility.

  Technology −3.4% · Finance −0.3% · Industrials −0.3%

• 

  10%−1.2%

  Policy Power Backlash

  The market narrative broadens from spending discipline to the physical constraints around AI expansion, including electricity demand, grid connections and regulatory approvals. This is less likely over a one-to-two-day horizon, but policy headlines could intensify pressure on AI infrastructure plans.

  Technology −2.1% · Utilities −0.5% · Industrials −0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.