Possible scenario
Regional Escalation Widens
20% Chance
The conflict broadens after additional Houthi launches or maritime threats create a direct risk to Saudi infrastructure and Red Sea transit. This outcome remains less likely than contained retaliation or diplomacy, but the recent Riyadh airport attack raises the probability of a sharper regional security response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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