Possible scenario
Ceasefire Track Holds
32% Chance
Diplomacy gains traction after the Security Council statement, with Oman and UN envoys pressing the Houthis to halt cross-border attacks in exchange for limited concessions. Riyadh still pursues an arms-blocking mechanism at the UN but avoids immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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