Possible scenario
Limited Saudi Retaliation
38% Chance
Saudi Arabia uses the Security Council statement as diplomatic cover for a contained military response against Houthi launch sites and command infrastructure. Riyadh avoids a broad ground or air campaign, while Washington and Gulf partners urge proportionality to keep oil and shipping risks contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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