Possible scenario
Storm Weakens Quickly
20% Chance
The depression fails to organize into a damaging hurricane or weakens before reaching critical infrastructure. Markets unwind the storm premium because the 2026 Atlantic season remains unusually quiet despite the late disturbance.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
Tickers
- VLO+0.8%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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